Тип публикации: статья из журнала
Год издания: 2025
Идентификатор DOI: 10.3103/S1068373925050073
Ключевые слова: wildfires, meteorological indicators, heat and moisture supply, precipitation, thunderstorms, fire season duration, extrapolation, siberia
Аннотация: Based on the long-term data series from 175 weather stations for 1981–2020, the present study examines the spatiotemporal variability of the indicators potentially determining the number and area of wildfires in Siberia (49°–79° N, 55°–165° E): duration of the fire season, heat and moisture availability (hydrothermal coefficient, HПоказать полностьюTC), and the number of days with thunderstorms and precipitation per year. The data for the last 10 years (2011–2020) were compared with the data for the 30-year period 1981–2010. A positive trend in the number of days with thunderstorms by 0.23–2.73 day/year, a decrease in HTC relative to the normal in some subregions of Siberia, an increase in the number of days with precipitation by 0.29–1.3 day/year and in the duration of the fire season by 0.12–1.18 day/year were revealed. In some subregions of Siberia, a further increase in the duration of the fire season by 20–35% during the next decade is expected. Using the GIS tools, the analyzed indicators are extrapolated for the entire territory of Siberia, and projections until 2030 are presented. The reliability level of the resulting estimates is 53–73%.
Журнал: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
Выпуск журнала: Т. 50, № 5
Номера страниц: 437-448
ISSN журнала: 10683739
Место издания: Москва
Издатель: Allerton Press, Inc.